The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released their assessment of the Office of Management and Budget’s semiannual TARP report.  That assessment estimates how much cash has gone out the door for each part of TARP, and how much CBO expects will ultimately be returned to the Treasury.  I have converted CBO’s table (Table 1 on page 2) to a set of graphs.  Looking at the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) in the bottom bar, $199 B has gone out the door in outlays, and CBO expects $174 B of that will be paid back.  CBO calculates a subsidy rate for each program, which for CPP is 25 ÷ (174 + 25) = 13%.  Taxpayers should expect to recoup 87% of the funds that were invested on their behalf in the Capital Purchase Program and lose the other 13%.

You can see from the graph that most of the funds went to capital purchase: CPP + specific firm deals (AIG, Bank of America, and Citigroup).  CBO thinks we taxpayers will get most of our money back from Bank of America and Citigroup.  We’ll get about half back from AIG, and a little more than a quarter back from the autos and auto finance companies.  The Administration’s foreclosure mitigation program is a spending program, not an investment, and thus we expect to get none of those funds back.  Footnote (d) on CBO’s table contains a surprise:  “The Treasury has not yet disbursed any of the $15 billion allocated as of June 17, 2009, for foreclosure mitigation.”  We heard a lot about the President’s efforts on foreclosure mitigation, and yet no cash has flowed.

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