I tried to update my projections for health care legislation but found I was making wild guesses.  This is too much of an inside game for me to predict what will happen over the next ten days.  My crystal ball is foggy.

I can, however, offer some questions and observations for you to consider.  I hope you find them useful.

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Q:  Is there a deal?

A:  We don’t know.  We know that, at the behest of the President, Leader Reid is dropping both the public option and Medicare buy-in from his amendment.  Last week he said the buy-in was a core element of what he asserted was a consensus Senate Democratic deal.  I think there is an Obama-Reid-Lieberman deal on two key issues, the announcement of which generated tremendous legislative momentum.  As best I can tell, there is not yet a comprehensive Reid amendment supported by 60 Senators.

Watch closely for reports of a CBO score.  Every time I read “Leader Reid’s staff continues to work with CBO,” I think “They still don’t have an amendment.”  They need a good answer from CBO, and they need to sell it to 60 Senators.  Despite the apparent enormous shift in public momentum favoring Senate passage, it appears they don’t have either one at the moment.

A friend astutely observed, “The proponents of this thing are simultaneously closer to final success – and to a complete collapse – than they have been for months.”

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