Updated projections

I am lowering from 50% to 35% my prediction for the success of comprehensive health care reform.  I now think the most likely outcome is a much more limited bill becomes law.

1. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the regular Senate process with 60, leading to a law; (was 30% –> 30%)
2. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the reconciliation process with 51 Senate Democrats, leading to a law; (was 20% –> 5%)
3. Fall back to a much more limited bill that becomes law; (was 15% –> 45%)
4. No bill becomes law this Congress.  (was 35% –> 20%)

My last update was 3 1/2 weeks ago, right before the motion to proceed was adopted.  My prediction then that “there is zero chance a bill makes it to the President’s desk before 2010” has been proven correct.  At the time that was not an uncommon prediction, but it was inconsistent with what the White House, Speaker Pelosi, and Leader Reid were all saying.

I still believe that if a comprehensive bill becomes law, I anticipate completion in late January or February, with the latter more likely.

In mid-November I wrote,

I would expect that as the third week approaches, Reid would begin to signal that the Senate has worked hard on the bill and needs to bring debate to a close.  Around the middle of week three, he would file a cloture motion on his substitute amendment, with the cloture vote happening on or near Friday, December 18th.

Public and private sources suggest this is likely to play out as predicted.

New prediction:  I think Leader Reid will not invoke cloture before Christmas.  What’s harder to figure out is whether he’ll even try.

Read the full post here