Now that Speaker Pelosi has released her health bill and Leader Reid will soon release his, we near the end of the most opaque part of the legislative process and approach floor consideration of both bills.

In response to yesterday’s post, a friend with two decades of legislative experience commented that this is the most interesting legislative process in years.  I agree, and it is also quite difficult to predict.  I just wish this fascinating process did not involve a policy that could so severely damage our economy.

Usually a legislative process gets easier to predict as it proceeds.  This one is more difficult, and I am less certain about my projections than I was a month ago.  At a minimum, I hope to help identify the forces pushing for and against legislative success.

Enactment of a comprehensive law is far from certain.  The last two attempts to enact major health care reform both failed:  the Clinton Health Plan in 1994, and the Patients’ Bill of Rights about ten years ago.  PBoR seemed inevitable right up to when it died.

Here are my updated projections:

1. Cut a bipartisan deal on a comprehensive bill with 3 Senate Republicans, leading to a law this year; (0.1% –> 0.01%)
2. Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the regular Senate process with 60, leading to a law this year; (unchanged at 50%)

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