As published for The Wall Street Journal on December 22, 2009:

Will Democrats regret Rahm’s wager on health care?

‘Twill be the night before Christmas when the Senate delivers the top item on White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel’s wish list: a health-care bill. But like the beautifully wrapped gift that looks so wonderful under the tree, this health-care legislation might start to look more like the ghastly sweater from your Aunt Tilly once it comes out of the box.

Give Majority Leader Harry Reid his due. Notwithstanding the grumblings about the way he did it, getting the 60 senators he needed to avoid a Republican filibuster was an achievement. Assuming the House and Senate work out their differences, Mr. Reid’s Christmas gift tees up the president for a triumphant State of the Union come January.

Yesterday President Barack Obama gave us a preview when he took a little victory lap amid a jab at critics who are “continually carping” about big spending. The health-care vote, he said, is “a big victory for the American people.”

Whether it’s a “big victory” for the Democratic Party depends on whether you buy Mr. Emanuel’s wager about 1994. The Emanuel Wager goes like this: It was the Democrats’ failure in 1994 to pass a health-care bill that ushered in the Gingrich takeover of Congress. In his own meetings with Democrats, former President Bill Clinton has pressed the same line.

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