As published for The Arena on politico.com on February 15th, 2010:

Democrat Sen. Evan Bayh won his last election by 24 percent. He won that race in 2004 at the same time President Bush won the state of Indiana by a 20 point margin. So, clearly Sen. Bayh has had the ability to attract crossover votes in his career. However, I would imagine he has seen an incredible erosion in his support since President Obama took office. For someone who has never lost election, Bayh must be looking to get out of the way of the GOP tidal wave that seems increasingly likely to sweep across the country in November. There’s also a chance that he’s looking to 2012. He may be trying to position himself as a moderate, somewhat non-partisan outsider who can run against a weakened, liberal President Obama. Engaging in a deeply partisan race for reelection this year against former Sen. Dan Coats wouldn’t serve that interest.

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