Published for The Enterprise Blog, August 31st, 2010:

The success of President Obama’s Oval Office address tonight comes down to a fundamental question: Is this a speech about ending wars or winning them? If it’s the former, the speech could be disastrous. If it is the latter, this could be an important, even historic, address.

Because Obama rarely speaks about the war on terror, the stakes tonight are especially high. Key audiences across the world will be listening to, and parsing, every word.

Clearly the president wants to take credit for ending the war in Iraq. In his radio address this weekend, he managed to mention “ending” the war seven times in a five-minute speech—a new land speed record. This was obviously intended to appease his left-wing, anti-war base, which does not support the fight in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

Tonight, however, Obama needs to focus on three other, far more important audiences: our troops, our allies, and our enemies.

When it comes to our troops, President Bush always told his speechwriters that a soldier on a street corner in Fallujah or Kandahar does want to hear the commander in chief talk about withdrawal—he wants to hear him talk about his commitment to victory. Our troops want to know President Obama has their backs—and that he fully backs the mission for which they are risking their lives. Tonight the troops will be watching to assess whether Obama cares more about prevailing than he cares about withdrawing.

Full post here